What the measurements mean, and how setups like these have actually resolved.
Every NSE stock in the EQ series with median 60-day turnover of ₹5 crore or more, above that floor on at least 80% of the last 60 sessions, priced ₹20 or above. The consistency test is what removes stocks whose liquidity arrives in one-day bursts. Membership is stored per date and never recomputed from today's list, so historical measurements are not contaminated by knowing which stocks survived.
A base is a consolidation after an advance. The detector requires a prior move of 25% or more, then a range of at least six weeks holding beneath its ceiling, with depth between 8% and 40%. Prices are adjusted for splits and bonuses; days locked at circuit are counted and disqualify a base beyond a small tolerance.
Tightening — second-half range divided by first-half range.
Below 1 means the base is quietening.
Volume dry-up — second-half average volume over first-half. Supply
withdrawing is the mechanism the pattern is trying to detect.
Delivery trend — the share of volume actually taken to demat,
later half versus earlier. Above 1 means a rising proportion of buyers are
keeping the shares rather than trading them intraday.
Contractions — the sequence of pullbacks inside the base, measured
at the scale that reveals its structure rather than its noise.
A breakout and a buyable breakout are different things. Within 5% of the pivot the stop is tight and the risk-reward is intact. Beyond that the same setup carries more risk for the same reward, which is why extended names are labelled rather than hidden.
Every time price closed above a base's pivot since 2018, measured 63 sessions forward, entering at the next session's open - the first price an end-of-day reader could actually pay.
Two rows per year, because one of them would be misleading. Held counts only the attempts that stayed above the pivot for eight sessions; that is the number this page used to show on its own, and it can only be known a week after the fact. Every attempt counts all of them, which is what you would have faced choosing on the day. The gap between the two rows is the size of the hindsight.
Edge is the average 63-session return minus the market's return over the identical window. The market here is an equal-weight index of the same universe: the average daily return of the stocks in it, chained. Until 12 September 2026 this page compared against the average closing price of the universe instead, which rose 77.7% since 2018 where the equal-weight index rose 371.8%, so every edge shown before that date was overstated by roughly the difference. Buckets with fewer than 50 breakouts are not shown, and all of these were measured on the same history that the thresholds were chosen from.
Every row above counts each attempt at a pivot, including the ones that closed back under it the same week. Counting instead the first clear of each base — one trade per base, the way a reader would take it — the same history gives +4.12% average at 21 sessions, a 52.9% win rate and an edge of +1.31 points over the equal-weight index. At 63 sessions that edge is −0.70. The difference between the two tables is not a better result; it is a different question.
Not provably. Here is the whole test, including the parts that argue against us.
The four screens' thresholds were chosen by looking at 2018–2026, so measuring them on that same history proves nothing. The only honest test is data the rules never saw. Splitting at January 2023 and simulating the obvious strategy — buy the three highest-RS names each screen has confirmed, every 15 sessions, entering at the next session's open and paying 0.25% a round trip — gives this, against the same money spread equally across the whole liquid universe on the same dates:
| Screen | 2018–2022 (fitted) | 2023–2026 (unseen) |
|---|---|---|
| Blue Sky | −13.6%/yr | +25.2%/yr |
| Tight & Quiet | −21.7%/yr | +8.8%/yr |
| Volume Buzzers | +2.0%/yr | −4.6%/yr |
Blue Sky is the only screen positive on unseen data, and positive in both halves of it. It also beats a deliberately dumb control — buy the highest-RS stocks with no base and no breakout at all — by 42 points a year, which says the base detection is contributing something real rather than repackaging momentum.
And yet we publish no performance claim, because the result is not stable. Repeat that same unseen-period test across twelve combinations of holding period (10, 15, 20, 30 sessions) and position count (3, 5, 10 names) and Blue Sky is ahead in five of them and behind in seven. At three positions it ranges from level to +41 points depending only on how long you hold. At ten positions it is negative almost everywhere. A durable edge degrades gently when you change the dial; this one flips sign. The most likely reading is concentration — roughly 40 rebalances holding three stocks each, with a handful of large winners carrying the total.
So treat Blue Sky as a lead worth watching on live data, not as a strategy with a known return. Everything on this site is research, not advice, and the site takes no position on what you should buy.
Prices, delivery figures and corporate actions come from NSE's public end-of-day files and are used here for research and personal reference. Index and overseas quotes on the Market page come from a public quote service. Neither is redistributed as a feed, and neither vendor endorses this site. If you sign in, the site stores your email address, your name, and a phone number only if you choose to give one, together with your saved screens and watchlist. They are used to sign you in, to send the alerts you switch on, and for nothing else - they are never sold or shared. Write to the address on the account page to have your account and everything in it deleted.
Past behaviour of similar setups is not a prediction. Backtest-style figures are hypothetical and exclude costs, slippage and taxes.
